Democracy’s Fate in Latin America
The opposition unites in Venezuela, but a Peronist runs first in Argentina.
By
Oct. 23, 2023 6:35 pm ET
There’s much ruin in a nation, the saying goes, and Argentines seem bent on proving it. Peronist economy minister Sergio Massa led Argentina’s presidential election Sunday with 37% of the vote, despite an economy in shambles.
In a Nov. 19 runoff, Mr. Massa will face Javier Milei, a self-described libertarian economist of the Liberty Advances party, who took 30%. Mr. Milei’s challenge is to win over the 24% of anti-Peronist voters who backed his center-right rival Patricia Bullrich. Not long ago the ruling Peronists seemed sure to be ousted. The government of President Alberto Fernández, in power since 2019, has generated inflation headed toward 180%, a looming debt crisis, and runaway crime and corruption. Then Mr. Milei finished a surprising first in the August primaries. The outsider’s ideas to dismantle the welfare state hit a nerve with young Argentines as he raged against elites. But many Bullrich supporters are wary of Mr. Milei and his ability or willingness to govern within institutional limits.
Mr. Massa responded to the Milei surge by cutting income taxes and mobilizing the powerful Peronist machine in local governments and labor unions. It claimed transportation fares would go up and gas subsidies down if the Peronists lost. A good part of Argentina no longer buys this nonsense. But widespread opposition to the ruling party is not enough. Without a leader to unite opponents, the Peronists will win. Over to you, Mr. Milei.
Meanwhile, Venezuelans went to the polls in a different electoral exercise: An opposition-organized primary to choose a single candidate to run in the 2024 presidential election against dictator Nicolás Maduro, who hopes to stay in power for another six years. By going around the dictatorship’s corrupt electoral body and running the primary on its own, the opposition aimed to keep the regime from interfering with the results. This was no small feat. Voters who went to the polls were openly demonstrating their dissent. In Venezuela’s police state, this exposes families to violence and threats against employment and food rations. Yet some 1.7 million Venezuelans stood in long lines to cast votes at the limited number of polling stations the opposition was able to set up.
Outside the country, where the Venezuelan diaspora is more than seven million, polling stations were limited. Argentina blocked the primary even when alternate dates were offered. Many citizens couldn’t register to vote because they’ve lost their identification documents or were minors when they left Venezuela.
Vente Venezuela party candidate Maria Corina Machado won some 90% of an estimated two million votes cast in the country and in 80 cities outside Venezuela. Ms. Machado is now the undisputed leader of the Venezuelan opposition, which believes it can unseat Mr. Maduro if the U.S. backs a fair process. Days before the primary the Biden Administration partially lifted sanctions on Venezuela in recognition of an election agreement the dictator signed with the opposition. It did so even though the regime has disqualified Ms. Machado from running in 2024.
The State Department says Venezuela has until the end of November to “define a specific timeline and process for the expedited reinstatement of all candidates” who have been banned and “begin the release” of all political prisoners, or the sanctions relief will be reversed. Investors might want to hold off on that next oil rig in the Orinoco Basin.